LAUSR

Abstract Background There is wide variation in the approach to staging for distant metastatic disease in breast cancer. This study sought to identify factors predictive of distant metastatic disease at presentation to enable appropriate selection of patients for pretreatment CT. Methods Data were collected retrospectively for all patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer (screening and symptomatic) over 3 years (2014–2017). Detailed demographic, pathological, biological, and management data were recorded at presentation, and outcome data were recorded after follow-up. Binomial logistic regression was used to identify variables independently associated with distant metastatic disease at presentation. Results A total of 1377 patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer were identified, of whom 1025 had complete data; 323 staging CT examinations were performed. Distant metastases were identified at presentation in 47 (4.6 per cent). Some 30 of 47 patients with metastatic disease met established criteria for staging (T4, recurrence, symptoms of possible distant metastases), leaving 17 patients with metastatic disease potentially missed by use of these criteria alone. Multivariable analysis showed that tumour size at least 3 cm combined with sonographically abnormal axillary lymph nodes predicted a high probability of distant metastatic disease at presentation (positive predictive value 18.8 per cent, odds ratio 4.83, P < 0.001). Addition of this criterion increased the positive CT rate to 17.1 per cent. Conclusion Selective pretreatment CT staging can be further optimized with the addition of tumour size at least 3 cm with abnormal axillary nodes to established staging criteria.