LAUSR

Evidence from prognostic studies of groups of COVID-19 patients suggest that those admitted to hospital with existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) experience worse outcomes relative to those who are CVD-free, as evidenced by their markedly increased risk of progression to intensive care and death. While obesity also appears to be related to unfavourable outcomes in COVID-19 patients, it is unknown whether this and other established CVD risk factors, as distinct from CVD itself, are associated with the occurrence of the infection, particularly in community samples. More generally, there is evidence from cardiovascular research to suggest that prognostic characteristics may reveal opposing relationships to those apparent for aetiological factors. For instance, British people of South Asian descent have a higher incidence of coronary disease but lower mortality once diagnosed with the condition. For the first time to our knowledge, we therefore examined whether unfavourable levels of classic CVD risk factors, both individually and collectively within the Framingham model, were implicated in the primary prevention of COVID-19 in a community-based prospective cohort study. Assessing the predictive value of the Framingham index for COVID-19 has potential clinical utility as this tool is widely used in general practice in many countries.