LAUSR

Abstract Aims To investigate the predictive ability of direct plasma renin and aldosterone concentrations as well as their ratio [aldosterone-to-renin (ARR)] for incident hypertension in the general population. Methods and results Concentration of renin and aldosterone were measured by a chemiluminescence immunoassay using the fully automated LIAISON® platform (DiaSorin) among 5362 participants of the population-based Gutenberg Health Study, who were normotensive and had no clinically overt cardiovascular disease at baseline. During a follow-up period of 5 years, 18.6% (n = 996) developed a new-onset hypertension. Comparing extreme quartiles of biomarker distribution, the relative risk (RR) for incident arterial hypertension was found to be 1.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–2.00; P = 0.00015; Q1 vs. Q4ref] for renin; 1.29 (95% CI 1.05–1.59, P = 0.018; Q4 vs. Q1ref) for aldosterone and 1.70 (95% CI 1.33–2.12; P < 0.0001; Q4 vs. Q1ref) for ARR after multivariable adjustment in men. In females, only high ARR was independently predictive for incident hypertension over 5 years [RR 1.29 (95% CI 1.04–1.62); P = 0.024]. Even in the subgroup of individuals having biomarker concentrations within the reference range, high ARR was predictive for new-onset hypertension in men [RR 1.44 (95% CI 1.13–1.83); P = 0.003]. Finally, synergistic effects of co-prevalent obesity and ARR on incident hypertension were also demonstrated, resulting in markedly higher risk estimates as seen for biomarker alone [RR of 2.70 (95% CI 2.05–3.6) for Q4 of ARR and having body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 vs. low ARR (Q1ref) and normal weight; P < 0.0001]. Conclusion Among normotensives from the general population ARR possesses a stronger predictive value for incident hypertension than renin or aldosterone alone. The prediction of arterial hypertension by ARR was even stronger in obese subjects.