LAUSR

The Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 has a target of 1/3 reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases. Although cancer is a chronic disease, it comprises more than 100 different conditions, with different risk factors and prognosis. This study aimed to calculate current and predicted premature mortality by 2030 for Brazil and regions, compare with SDG 3.4 target and identify regional progress and future needs. Mortality data were extracted from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM) and subsequently corrected for ill-defined causes. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. NordPred package by software R was used to calculate predictions up to 2030 and compared with the goal of 1/3 reduction of premature deaths. Comparison of observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2016-2030) mortality rates show a 12.0% reduction in the likelihood of death among men and 4.6% among women nationally. Although predicted rates for 2026-2030 are lower than those observed in 2011-2015 predicted number of deaths increases by 75,341 for men and 90,513 for women. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease more among men than women, while colorectal cancer mortality will increase for both sexes, in all regions (except in the Southeast). The profile of premature cancer mortality is diverse in Brazil. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching SDG 3.4 target, endorsing government's long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. The increase in colorectal cancer mortality reflects the epidemiological transition. Despite progress in cervical cancer control, it will continue to be a major challenge. Our results provide a baseline for public policies for both prevention and access to treatment to reduce premature mortality in Brazil. Differences in mortality patterns highlight the need to adapt cancer prevention policies regionally. Cancer premature mortality decrease in Brazil is expected to occur, but far from the SDG 3.4 target – including preventable cancers as cervical cancer. An increase is expected to occur in colorectal premature cancer mortality rates and strategies to face it need to be developed regionally.