LAUSR

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to 2030 under two scenarios: an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and pessimistic projections from recent reports. According to the results, Brexit caused a sustained modest decline in UK demand for wood products through 2030. The consumption of sawnwood in Britain was 1.0–2.1% lower by 2030, 2.9–6.1% lower for wood-based panels and 1.9–4.1% lower for paper and paperboard. With Brexit, the UK net trade deficit in sawnwood decreased by 4.8–9.9% by 2030, 4.4–9.1% for wood-based panel and 5.5–10.8% for paper and paperboard. The effects on industrial roundwood consumption and production within the UK were negligible. Both scenarios had a modest adverse effect on the global market for wood products. The consequences of Brexit were mostly within Europe and driven predominantly by reduced consumption within the UK itself. While the effect was greater under the pessimistic scenario, the overall impact on the global wood products industry was small, and it had no discernable effect on prices.