LAUSR

BACKGROUND Previous studies reported that prostate cancer incidence rates in the United States (US) declined for local-stage disease and increased for regional- and distant-stage disease following the US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations against prostate-specific antigen-based screening for men aged ≥75 in 2008 and for all men in 2012. It is unknown, however, whether these patterns persisted through 2016. METHODS Based on the US Cancer Statistics Public Use Research Database, we examined temporal trends in invasive prostate cancer incidence from 2005-2016 in men aged ≥50 years stratified by stage (local, regional, and distant), age group (50-74 and ≥75), and race/ethnicity (all races/ethnicities, non-Hispanic whites, and non-Hispanic blacks) with joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percent changes. Tests of statistical significance are two-sided, P < 0.05. RESULTS For all races/ethnicities combined, incidence for local-stage disease declined beginning in 2007 in men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years though the decline stabilized during 2013-2016 in men aged ≥75 years. Incidence decreased by 6.4% (95%CI, 4-9%-7.9%) per year from 2007-2016 in men aged 50-74 years and by 10.7% (95%CI, 6.2%-15.0%) per year from 2007-2013 in men aged ≥75 years. In contrast, incidence for regional- and distant-stage disease increased in both age groups during the study period. For example, distant-stage incidence in men aged ≥75 years increased by 5.2% (95%CI, 4.2%-6.1%) per year from 2010-2016. CONCLUSIONS Regional- and distant-stage prostate cancer incidence continue to increase in the US in men aged ≥50 years, and future studies are needed to identify reasons for the rising trends.