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Short-Run and Long-Run Consumption Risks, Dividend Processes, and Asset Returns

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We examine the implications of short-run and long-run consumption risks on the momentum and long-term contrarian profits and the value premium in a unified economic framework. By introducing time-varying firm… Click to show full abstract

We examine the implications of short-run and long-run consumption risks on the momentum and long-term contrarian profits and the value premium in a unified economic framework. By introducing time-varying firm cash flow exposures to the short-run and long-run shocks in consumption growth, we find the otherwise standard intertemporal asset pricing model goes a long way toward generating the momentum and long-term contrarian profits and the value premium. The model also reproduces the size effect, the pairwise correlations between the profitabilities of these investment strategies, and the performance of the standard CAPM and the consumption CAPM in explaining these well-documented return behaviors.

Keywords: consumption risks; short run; run long; consumption; long run; run consumption

Journal Title: Review of Financial Studies
Year Published: 2017

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