LAUSR

The recently emerged beech leaf disease (BLD) is causing the decline and death of American beech in North America. First observed in Northeast Ohio, USA, in 2012, BLD had been documented in 10 northeastern US states and the Canadian province of Ontario as of July 2022. A foliar nematode has been implicated as the causal agent, along with some bacterial taxa. No effective treatments have been documented in the primary literature. Irrespective of potential treatments, prevention and prompt eradication (AKA rapid responses) remain the most cost-effective approaches to the management of forest tree disease. For these approaches to be feasible, however, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to BLD spread and use them in estimation of risk. Here, we conducted an analysis of BLD risk across Northern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Western New York, and Northern West Virginia, USA. In the absence of symptoms, an area cannot necessarily be deemed free of BLD, i.e., absence of BLD cannot be certain, due to its fast spread and the lag in symptom expression (latency) after infection. Therefore, we employed two widely used presence-only species distribution models (SDMs), one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) and maximum entropy (Maxent), to predict the spatial pattern of BLD risk, based on BLD presence records and associated environmental variables. Our results show that both methods work well for BLD environmental risk modeling purposes, but Maxent outperforms OCSVM with respect to both the quantitative receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and the qualitative evaluation of the spatial risk maps. Meanwhile, the Maxent model provides a quantification of variable contribution for different environmental factors, indicating that meteorological (isothermality and temperature seasonality) and land cover type (closed broadleaved deciduous forest) factors are likely key contributors to BLD distribution. Moreover, the future trajectories of BLD risk over our study area in the context of climate change were investigated by comparing the current and future risk maps obtained by Maxent. In addition to offering the ability to predict where the disease may spread next, our work contributes to the epidemiological characterization of BLD, providing new lines of investigation to improve ecological or silvicultural management. Furthermore, this study shows strong potential for extension of environmental risk mapping over the full American beech distribution range, so that proactive management measures can be put in place. Similar approaches can be designed for other significant or emerging forest pest problems, contributing to overall management efficiency and efficacy.