LAUSR

Background: A fundamental tenent of treating developmental dysplasia of the hip is to identify patients with dislocated hips early so as to avoid the long-term sequelae of late diagnosis. The aim of this study was to develop a readily useable triage tool for patients with suspected hip dislocation, based on the clinical history and examination findings of the referring practitioner. Methods: All primary care referrals (n=934) over a 3-year period for suspected developmental dysplasia of the hip to a tertiary pediatric center were evaluated. Defined parameters with respect to history and clinical examination were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to establish predictors of hip dislocation, and from this a predictive model was derived which incorporated significant predictors of dislocation. An illustrative nomogram translated this predictive model into a usable numerical scoring system called the Children’s Hip Prediction score, which estimates probability of hip dislocation. Results: There were 97 dislocated hips in 85 patients. The final predictive model included age, sex, family history, breech, gait concerns, decreased abduction, leg length discrepancy, and medical/neurological syndrome. The area under receiver operating curve for the model is 0.761. A Children’s Hip Prediction score of≥5 corresponds to a sensitivity of 76.3% and a score of≥15 has a specificity of 97.8%, corresponding to an odds ratio of 27.3 for increased risk of dislocation. Conclusion: We found that a novel clinical prediction score, based on readily available history and examination parameters strongly predicted risk of dislocations in hip dysplasia referral. It is hoped that this tool could be utilized to optimize resource allocation and may be of particular benefit in less well-resourced health care systems. Level of Evidence: Level II.