LAUSR

BACKGROUND Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) that collect and distribute information on dispensed controlled substances have been adopted by nearly all US states. We know little about program characteristics that modify PDMP impact on prescription opioid overdose deaths. METHODS We measured associations between adoption of any PDMP and changes in fatal prescription opioid overdoses in 2002-2016 across 3,109 counties in 49 states. We then measured changes related to the adoption of "proactive PDMPs", which report outlying prescribing/dispensing patterns and provide broader access to PDMP data by law enforcement. Comparisons were made within three time intervals that broadly represent the evolution of PDMPs (2002-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2016). We modeled overdoses using Bayesian space-time models. RESULTS Adoption of electronic PDMP access was associated with 9% lower rates of fatal prescription opioid overdoses after three years (rate ratio [RR]=0.91, 95% credible interval [CI]: 0.88-0.93) with well-supported effects for methadone (RR=0.86, CI: 0.82-0.90) and other synthetic opioids (RR=0.82, CI: 0.77-0.86). Compared to states with no/weak PDMPs, proactive PDMPs were associated with fewer deaths attributed to natural/semi-synthetic opioids (2002-2004: RR=0.72 (0.66-0.78); 2005-2009: RR=0.93 (0.90-0.97); 2010-2016: 0.89 (0.86-0.92)) and methadone (2002-2004: RR=0.77 (0.69-0.85); 2010-2016: RR=0.90 (0.86-0.94)). Unintended effects were observed for synthetic opioids other than methadone (2005-2009: RR=1.29 (1.21-1.38); 2010-2016: RR=1.22 (1.16-1.29)). CONCLUSIONS State adoption of PDMPs was associated with fewer prescription opioid deaths overall while proactive PDMPs alone were associated with fewer deaths related to natural/semi-synthetic opioids and methadone, the specific targets of these programs.