LAUSR

Abstract The space radiation environment consists of a complex mixture of ionizing particles that pose significant health risks to crew members. NASA currently requires that an astronaut’s career Risk of Exposure Induced Death (REID) for cancer mortality should not exceed 3% at the upper 95% confidence level. This career radiation limit is likely to be exceeded for even the shortest round-trip mission scenario to Mars. As such, NASA has begun to pursue more vigorously approaches to directly reduce radiation risks, despite the large uncertainties associated with such projections. A recent study considered cohort studies of aspirin and warfarin as possible medical countermeasures (MCMs) acting to reduce background cancer mortality rates used in astronaut risk projections. It was shown that such MCMs can reduce the REID for specific tissues in restricted time intervals over which the drugs were administered; however, the cumulative effect on total lifetime REID was minimal. As an extension, the present work addresses more general MCM requirements that would be needed to meet current NASA radiation limits for a Mars mission scenario. A sensitivity analysis is performed within the major components of the NASA cancer risk model that would likely be modified by MCM interventions. This includes the background cancer incidence and mortality rates, epidemiologically based hazard rates derived from acute terrestrial exposures, and radiation quality factors used to translate terrestrial exposures to space radiation. Relationships between possible MCMs and each of these components are discussed. Results from this study provide important information regarding MCM requirements needed to meet NASA limits for planned Mars missions. Insight into the types of countermeasures expected to yield greatest reductions in crew risk is also gained.