LAUSR

Background: The standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) is neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgical excision. Current evidence suggests a favorable prognosis for those with pathological complete response (pCR), and surgery may be spared for them. We trained and validated regression models for CRT response prediction with selected radiomic features extracted from pretreatment magnetic resonance (MR) images to recruit potential candidates for this watch-and-wait strategy. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled patients with LARC who underwent pre-CRT MR imaging between 2010 and 2019. Pathological complete response in surgical specimens after CRT was defined as the ground truth. Quantitative features derived from both unfiltered and filtered images were extracted from manually segmented region of interests on T2-weighted images and selected using variance threshold, univariate statistical tests, and cross-validation least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression. Finally, a regression model using selected features with high coefficients was optimized and evaluated. Model performance was measured by classification accuracies and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). Results: We extracted 1223 radiomic features from each MRI study of 133 enrolled patients. After tumor excision, 34 (26 %) of 133 patients had pCR in resected specimens. When 25 image-derived features were selected from univariate analysis, classification AUROC was 0.86 and 0.79 with the addition of six clinical features on the hold-out internal validation dataset. When 11 image-derived features were used, the optimized linear regression model had an AUROC value of 0.79 and 0.65 with the addition of six clinical features on the hold-out dataset. Among the radiomic features, texture features including gray level variance, strength, and cluster prominence had the highest coefficient by Lasso regression. Conclusion: Radiomic features derived from pretreatment MR images demonstrated promising efficacy in predicting pCR after CRT. However, radiomic features combined with clinical features did not result in remarkable improvement in model performance.