LAUSR

Activation of gene expression in response to environmental cues results in substantial phenotypic heterogeneity between cells that can impact a wide range of outcomes including differentiation, viral activation, and drug resistance. An important source of gene expression noise is transcriptional bursting, or the observation that transcripts are produced during infrequent bursts of promoter activity. Chromatin accessibility, which regulates assembly of polymerase complexes on promoters, impacts transcriptional bursting, suggesting that how an activating signal affects transcriptional noise will depend on the initial chromatin state at the promoter. To explore this possibility, we simulated transcriptional activation using a transcriptional cycling model with three promoter states that represent chromatin remodeling, polymerase binding and pause release. We initiated this model over a large parameter range representing target genes with different chromatin environments, and found that, upon increasing the polymerase pause release rate to activate transcription, changes in gene expression noise varied significantly across initial promoter states. This model captured phenotypic differences in activation of latent HIV viruses integrated at different chromatin locations and mediated by the transcription factor NF-κB. Activating transcription in the model via increasing one or more of the transcript production rates, as occurs following NF-κB activation, reproduced experimentally measured transcript distributions for four different latent HIV viruses, as well as the bimodal pattern of HIV protein expression that leads to a subset of reactivated virus. Importantly, the parameter ‘activation path’ differentially affected gene expression noise, and ultimately viral activation, in line with experimental observations. This work demonstrates how upstream signaling pathways can be connected to biological processes that underlie transcriptional bursting, resulting in target gene-specific noise profiles following stimulation of a single upstream pathway. Author Summary Many genes are transcribed in infrequent bursts of mRNA production through a process called transcriptional bursting, which contributes to variability in responses between cells. Heterogeneity in cell responses can have important biological impacts, such as whether a cell supports viral replication or responds to a drug, and thus there is an effort to describe this process with mathematical models to predict biological outcomes. Previous models described bursting as a transition between an “OFF” state or an “ON” state, an elegant and simple mathematical representation of complex molecular mechanisms, but one which failed to capture how upstream activation signals affected bursting. To address this, we added an additional promoter state to better reflect biological mechanisms underlying bursting. By fitting this model to variable activation of quiescent HIV infections in T cells, we showed that our model more accurately described viral expression variability across cells in response to an upstream stimulus. Our work highlights how mathematical models can be further developed to understand complex biological mechanisms and suggests ways to connect transcriptional bursting to upstream activation pathways.