LAUSR

PurposeTo maintain the bottom line of food import risk in China, this paper proposes a novel risk state evaluation model based on bottom-line thinking after analyzing the decision-making ideas embedded in the bottom-line thinking method.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the order relation analysis method (G1 method) and Laplacian score (LS) are applied to calculate the constant weights of indexes. Then, the worst-case scenario of food import risk can be estimated to strive for the best result, so the penalty state variable weight function is introduced to obtain variable weights of indexes. Finally, the study measures the risk state of China's food import from the overall situation using the set pair analysis (SPA) method and identifies the key factors affecting food import risk.FindingsThe risk states of food supply in eight countries are in the state of average potential and partial back potential as a whole. The results indicate that China's food import risks are at medium and upper-medium risk levels in most years, fluctuating slightly from 2010 to 2020. In addition, some factors are diagnosed as the primary control objects for holding the bottom line of food import risk in China, including food output level, food export capacity, bilateral relationship and political risk.Originality/valueThis paper proposes a novel risk state evaluation model following bottom-line thinking for food import risk in China. Besides, SPA is first applied to the risk evaluation of food import, expanding the application field of the SPA method.