LAUSR

Due to the polymorphic uncertainties in microgrids (MGs), prohibitive computational burden is produced in reliability assessment. In this work, a novel sequential sampling algorithm (NSSA) compatible with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation is developed to overcome the computational burden. First, optimal probability density functions (PDFs) of random variables are worked out based on variation method. Then, optimal PDFs are employed to chronologically simulate the random states of microturbine (MT), photovoltaics (PV) and time varying load with improved computational efficiency. Therefore, the convergence of reliability assessment is accelerated accordingly. A series of case studies have been conducted, and the computational results show that NSSA provides a favorable sampling efficiency and adaptability to system conditions in reliability assessment of MGs. At last, based on optimal PDFs produced by NSSA, dominant joint PDF (DJ-PDF) is defined and employed to quantify the contributions of different scenarios to the reliability indices. Case studies have confirmed that DJ-PDF can provide detailed information for scenario-based reliability analysis.