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A New Model for Predicting and Dismantling a Complex Terrorist Network

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The perennial nature of terrorist attacks in recent times has ushered in a new wave of study in the field of terrorism known as social network analysis (SNA). Terrorist groups… Click to show full abstract

The perennial nature of terrorist attacks in recent times has ushered in a new wave of study in the field of terrorism known as social network analysis (SNA). Terrorist groups operate as a social network stealthily to enhance their efficacy rate, thereby making sure their activities are cloaked. This study proposes a new method to uncover and dismantle a terror network by applying a 4-centrality measure. After establishing link prediction using centrality measures, we dismantle the network based on Galton-Watson extinction probability. This study examines the 9/11 incident and measures the link prediction of the M-19 network. In curbing terrorist network activities, the elimination of a highly ranked node in the network is a condition sine qua non. We further examine the lethality of the network as well as network bonding to obtain the degree of cohesiveness, which is a crucial determinant for network survival. Our experimental results indicate that link prediction is vital in uncloaking a terror network, which is the core of counterterrorism.

Keywords: network; new model; terrorist network; terrorist; model predicting; link prediction

Journal Title: IEEE Access
Year Published: 2022

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