LAUSR

Preventing COVID-19 disease from spreading in communities will require proactive and effective healthcare resource allocations, such as vaccinations. A fine-grained COVID-19 vulnerability map will be essential to detect the high-risk communities and guild the effective vaccine policy. A mobile-crowdsourcing-based self-reporting approach is a promising solution. However, an accurate mobile-crowdsourcing-based map construction requests participants to report their actual locations, raising serious privacy concerns. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach to effectively construct a reliable community-level COVID-19 vulnerability map based on mobile crowdsourced COVID-19 self-reports without compromising participants’ location privacy. We design a geo-perturbation scheme where participants can locally obfuscate their locations with the geo-indistinguishability guarantee to protect their location privacy against any adversaries’ prior knowledge. To minimize the data utility loss caused by location perturbation, we first design an unbiased vulnerability estimator and formulate the location perturbation probability generation into a convex optimization. Its objective is to minimize the estimation error of the direct vulnerability estimator under the constraints of geo-indistinguishability. Given the perturbed locations, we integrate the perturbation probabilities with the spatial smoothing method to obtain reliable community-level vulnerability estimations that are robust to a small-sampling-size problem incurred by location perturbation. Considering the fast-spreading nature of coronavirus, we integrate the vulnerability estimates into the modified susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with vaccination for building a future trend map. It helps to provide a guideline for vaccine allocation when supply is limited. Extensive simulations based on real-world data demonstrate the proposed scheme superiority over the peer designs satisfying geo-indistinguishability in terms of estimation accuracy and reliability.