LAUSR

The coming era of widespread integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices to all areas of society has facilitated a fundamental transformation of local and global communication networks, giving rise to novel issues relating to capacity planning, network administration, and cybersecurity. Accurate network traffic prediction is one of the key enablers for addressing these challenges. While there are methods for quantifying the complexity (predictability in timing, shape, and volume) of wide-scale aggregate traffic, they cannot be directly applied to IoT traffic as they do not account for the heterogeneity of IoT devices. Lacking an effective complexity characterization for IoT traffic, network traffic administrators are under-informed on the impacts of IoT device-type traffic on their networks. In this work, the complexity of IoT traffic is examined from two novel perspectives, the information-theoretic approach of Lempel–Ziv, a foundational algorithm in lossless data compression, and in the distribution of spectral components of the Fourier transform. Based on these perspectives, two new measures of IoT network traffic complexity are proposed. Furthermore, we introduce a novel mathematical framework to permit a formal comparison of new and existing methods. The new framework additionally verifies that the new metrics satisfy desirable properties for a measure of complexity. In a comprehensive empirical study, our results, when compared with existing approaches, exceed all others in behavioral resolution, convergence rate, physical interpretability, and algorithmic stability, under severely heterogeneous conditions. Benchmark experiments demonstrate substantial run-time improvements over existing approaches, creating a strong case for their use in online, real-time settings.