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A Mean-Field Analysis of a Network Behavioral–Epidemic Model

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The spread of an epidemic disease and the population’s collective behavioral response are deeply intertwined, influencing each other’s evolution. Such a co-evolution typically has been overlooked in mathematical models, limiting… Click to show full abstract

The spread of an epidemic disease and the population’s collective behavioral response are deeply intertwined, influencing each other’s evolution. Such a co-evolution typically has been overlooked in mathematical models, limiting their real-world applicability. To address this gap, we propose and analyse a behavioral–epidemic model, in which a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model and an evolutionary game-theoretic decision-making mechanism concerning the use of self-protective measures are coupled. Through a mean-field approach, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of the system, deriving conditions for global convergence to a disease-free equilibrium and characterizing the endemic equilibria of the system and their (local) stability properties. Interestingly, for a certain range of the model parameters, we prove global convergence to a limit cycle, characterized by periodic epidemic outbreaks and collective behavioral response.

Keywords: epidemic model; model; mean field; behavioral epidemic; field analysis

Journal Title: IEEE Control Systems Letters
Year Published: 2022

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