LAUSR

OBJECTIVE Nursing homes (NHs) are serving an increasing proportion of residents with cognitive issues (e.g. dementia) and mental health conditions. This study aims to: 1) implement unsupervised machine learning to cluster NHs based on residents' dementia and mental health conditions; 2) examine NH staffing related to the clusters; and 3) investigate the association of staffing and NH quality (measured by number of deficiencies and deficiency scores) in each cluster. DATA SOURCES 2009-2017 Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reporting (CASPER) were merged with LTCFocUS.org data on NHs in the United States. STUDY DESIGN Unsupervised machine learning algorithm (K-means) clustered NHs based on percent residents with dementia, depression, and serious mental illness (SMI, e.g. schizophrenia, anxiety). Panel fixed-effects regressions on deficiency outcomes with staffing-cluster interactions were conducted to examine the effects of staffing on deficiency outcomes in each cluster. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS We identified 110,463 NH-year observations from 14,671 unique NHs using CAPSER data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Three clusters were identified: low dementia and mental illnesses (Post-acute Cluster); high dementia and depression, but low SMI (Long-stay Cluster); and high dementia and mental illnesses (Cognitive-mental Cluster). From 2009-2017, the number of Post-acute Cluster NHs increased from 3074 to 5719, while number of Long-stay Cluster NHs decreased from 6745 to 3058. NHs in Long-stay/Cognitive-Mental Clusters reported slightly lower nursing staff hours in 2017. Regressions suggested the effect of increasing staffing on reducing deficiencies is statistically similar across NH clusters. For example, one hour increase in registered nurse hours per resident day was associated with -0.67 [standard error (SE) =0.11], -0.88 (SE = 0.12), and - 0.97 (SE = 0.15) deficiencies in Post-acute Cluster, Long-stay Cluster, and Cognitive-Mental Cluster, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Unsupervised machine learning detected a changing landscape of NH serving residents with dementia and mental illnesses, which requires assuring staffing levels and trainings are suited to residents' needs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.