LAUSR

OBJECTIVE To discuss and develop difference-in-difference estimators for categorical outcomes and apply them to estimate the effect of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion on insurance coverage. DATA SOURCES Secondary analysis of Survey on Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data on health insurance coverage types before (Jan 2013) and after (Dec 2015) Medicaid expansion in 39 US states (19 expansion and 20 non-expansion). STUDY DESIGN We develop difference-in-difference methods for repeated measures (panel data) of categorical outcomes. We discuss scale dependence of DID assumptions for marginal and transition effect estimates, and specify a new target estimand: the difference between outcome category transitions under treatment versus no treatment. We establish causal assumptions about transitions that are sufficient to identify this and a marginal target estimand. We contrast the marginal estimands identified by the transition approach versus an additive assumption only about marginal evolution. We apply both the marginal and transition approaches to estimate the effects of Medicaid expansion on health insurance coverage types (employer-sponsored; other private, non-group; public; and uninsured). DATA EXTRACTION We analyze 16,027 individual survey responses from people aged 18 to 62 years in the 2014 SIPP panel. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We show that the two identifying assumptions are equivalent (on the scale of the marginals) if either the baseline marginal distributions are identical or the marginals are constant in both grousp. Applying our transitions approach to the SIPP data, we estimate a differencial increase in transitions from uninsured to public coverage and differential decreases in transitions from uninsured to private, non-group coverage and in remaining uninsured. CONCLUSIONS By comparing the assumption that marginals are evolving in parallel to an assumption about transitions across outcome values, we illustrate the scale-dependence of difference-in-differences. Our application shows that studying transitions can illuminate nuances obscured by changes in the marginals.