LAUSR

UK’s exit (Brexit) from the EU would entail disturbances in agri-food markets. This study analyzed three different Brexit scenarios with increasing barriers to trade (EEA+, FTA, WTO), employing the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. However, provided trade costs are kept low, termination of the contribution to the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the gains to producers from higher food prices could offset the losses to consumers. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but reduce farmers’ incomes.