LAUSR

Conifer‐feeding budworms emerge from overwintering sites as small larvae in early spring, several days before budburst, and mine old needles. These early‐emerging larvae suffer considerable mortality during this foraging period as they disperse in search of available, current‐year buds. Once buds flush, surviving budworms construct feeding shelters and must complete maturation before fresh host foliage senesces and lignifies later in the summer. Late‐developing larvae suffer greater mortality and survivors have lower fecundity when feeding on older foliage. Thus, there is a seasonal trade‐off in fitness associated with host synchrony: early‐emerging budworms have a greater risk of mortality during spring dispersal but gain better access to the most nutritious foliage, while, on the other hand, late‐emerging larvae incur a lower risk during the initial foraging period but must contend with rapidly diminishing resource quality at the end of the feeding period. We investigate the balance that results from these early‐season and late‐season synchrony fitness trade‐offs using the concept of the phenological window. Parameters associated with the variation in the phenological window are used to estimate generational fitness as a function of host‐plant synchrony. Because defoliation modifies these relationships, it is also included in the analysis. We show that fitness trade‐offs characterizing the phenological window result in a robust synchrony relationship between budworm and host plant over a wide geographic range in southern British Columbia, Canada.