LAUSR

AIM To predict the effects of perfect adherence to the French alcohol consumption guidelines, a maximum of 10 standard alcoholic drinks per week with no more than 2 standard alcoholic drinks per day, over a 36-year period (2014-2050). DESIGN This simulation study is an adaption of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model. The dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable cancer risks was defined by cancer site-specific risk functions, each modeled as a continuous risk. These estimates were used to compute the potential impact fraction (PIF) associated with alcohol consumption by cancer site. SETTING The French general adult population over a 36-year period (2014-2050). PARTICIPANTS For the baseline scenario, the current distribution of consumption levels, and the counterfactual scenario, perfect adherence to the French alcohol consumption guidelines, we generated for each gender and age group 1,000 randomly distributed alcohol consumption values from calibrated group-specific gamma distribution. MEASUREMENTS Predicted number of new cancer cases among men and women in France between 2015 to 2050 that could have been prevented by following the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines. FINDINGS The simulation predicted that perfect adherence to the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines would prevent on average an estimated 15,952 cancer cases per year after the PIF reached its full effect, which would have represented 4.5% of new cancer cases in 2015. The number of averted cancer cases over the study period were highest for oral cavity, oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer (respectively 118462 (95% CI [113803,123022]) and 11167 [10149,12229] for men and women); liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer (123447 [112581,133404]) and 2825 [2208,4095]; colorectal cancer (89859 [84651,95355]) and 12847 [11545,14245]); and female breast cancer (61649 [56330,67452]). CONCLUSION This simulation study of the French general population predicted that perfect adherence to the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines (no more than 10 standard alcoholic drinks per week and two per day) would prevent almost 16,000 cancer cases per year.