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Uncertainty in the modelled mortality of two tree species (Fraxinus) under novel climatic regimes

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Based upon species distribution models (SDMs), many studies have predicted that climate change will cause regional extinctions of tree species within the next 50–100 years. SDM‐based predictions have been challenged… Click to show full abstract

Based upon species distribution models (SDMs), many studies have predicted that climate change will cause regional extinctions of tree species within the next 50–100 years. SDM‐based predictions have been challenged on procedural and theoretical grounds, but for tree species they are largely beyond the practical reach of direct experimental validation. Here we report the experimental consequences of moving seedlings from ~50 natural populations of each of two ash (Fraxinus) species to experimental sites spanning a range of 10°C colder to 10°C warmer (mean annual temperature) than home environments.

Keywords: mortality two; two tree; uncertainty modelled; tree species; species fraxinus; modelled mortality

Journal Title: Diversity and Distributions
Year Published: 2021

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