LAUSR

Pest outbreaks, harmful algal blooms and population collapses are extreme events with critical consequences for ecosystems. Therefore, understanding the ecological mechanisms underlying these extreme events is crucial. We evaluated theoretical predictions on the size scaling and variance of extreme population abundance by combining (i) the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory and (ii) the resource-limited metabolic restriction hypothesis for population abundance. Using the phytoplankton data from the L4 station in the English Channel, we showed a negative size scaling of the expected value of maximal density, whose confidence interval included the predicted metabolic scaling (α = -1) supporting theoretical predictions. The role of resources and temperature in the distribution of the size-abundance pattern and residuals was well characterized by the GEV distribution. This comprehensive modelling framework will allow to elucidate community structure and fluctuations and provide unbiased return times estimates, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the timing of the population outbreaks.