LAUSR

BACKGROUND The epidemiology of chronic liver disease is changing with the introduction of potent antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). AIM To establish the impact of this change on the rates and clinical patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in South Australia (SA). METHODS Newly diagnosed HCC patients from January 2014 until December 2019 from four tertiary centres in SA were included. The overall age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of HCC were calculated using 2016 SA population as the standard. To assess the trends, Join-Point regression models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Forecasting of overall and aetiology-specific HCC from 2020 to 2024 was performed using linear regression. RESULTS There were 626 new cases of HCC in SA (males 80%; median age 64 years) during the study period. There was a significant increase in NASH-related HCC (AAPC: +7.0%; P < 0.05) from 2014 to 2019. However, there were no significant differences in the ASIR for overall HCC (AAPC: -4.1%), HCV-related HCC (AAPC: -8.0%) and stage of HCC diagnosis (AAPC: +3.0%; P > 0.05). Forecasting analysis projected the decline and increase in the incidence of HCV and NASH-related HCC, respectively, over the next few years. CONCLUSION Overall ASIR of HCC has plateaued in SA. However, NASH-related HCC has increased significantly and is expected to continue to increase in the near future. Further research and intervention is required to reduce NASH-related HCC, a major contributor to the current and future burden of HCC.