LAUSR

Climate change may influence the application efficiency of transgenic marking, such as in mark–release–recapture (MRR) experiments or sterile insect technique (SIT). Wild and transgenic fruit flies of Bactrocera dorsalis were subjected to oscillating regimes that represent current temperature conditions (mean: 28.6°C) and various future possible scenarios (means: 30.0, 32.5 and 35.0°C). As the temperature was increased to 30.0°C, the negative effects on adult fecundity and demographic parameters (net reproductive rate and intrinsic rate of increase) of only the transgenic cohorts increased. With a moderate warming (32.5°C), negative effects were observed on the net reproductive rate for both fly strains, and these effects on the life‐history traits (adult fecundity and longevity) and intrinsic rate of increase were stronger in the transgenic than in the wild cohorts, with reference to the trait values at 30.0°C. A severe warming (35.0°C) resulted in the failure of all individuals of both fly strains to reach adulthood. We suggest parametrical adjustments or decreased differences in fitness with refined transgenesis under current and future climate conditions, which can reduce the marking limitations of pest management and eradication programmes.