LAUSR

The current system of production and consumption needs end‐of‐life disposal to function, but the linkage between upstream production‐consumption with the downstream landfill as terminus is, at best, a tenuous, one‐way relationship, suggesting a partial system failure. A starting point to fix this link is to confront, systematically, the messy “black box” that is mixed waste landfilling, interrogate its contents locally, and determine a baseline that can be used to scale up results. Here, we develop a detailed model characterizing landfilled municipal solid waste (MSW) in the United States across the dimensions of material quantity, quality, location, and time. The model triangulates measurements spanning 1,161 landfills (representing up to 95% of landfilled MSW) and 15,169 solid waste samples collected and analyzed at 222 sites across the United States. We confirm that landfilled quantities of paper (63 million megagrams [Mg]), food waste (35 million Mg), plastic (32 million Mg, textiles (10 million Mg), and electronic waste (3.5 million Mg) are far larger than computed by previous top‐down U.S. government estimates. We estimate the cost of MSW landfill disposal in 2015 (10.7 billion U.S. dollars [USD]) and gross lost commodity value of recyclable material (1.4 billion USD). Further, we estimate landfill methane emissions to be up to 14% greater (mass basis) than the 2015 U.S. inventory. By principally relying on measurements of waste quantity and type that are recorded annually, the model can inform more effective, targeted interventions to divert waste materials from landfill disposal, improve local, regional, and national emission estimates, enhance dissipative loss estimates in material flow analyses, and illuminate the dynamics linking material, energy, and economic dimensions to production, consumption, and disposal cycles.