LAUSR

Outside clinical trials, the first COVID-19 vaccine was administered on 8 December 2020. Researchers aimed to quantify the global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination programmes using mathematical modelling to fit COVID-19 transmission and vaccination to reported COVID-19 mortality and all-cause excess mortality in 185 countries and territories. They determined the number of lives lost if there had been no vaccines. Based on reported COVID-19 deaths, vaccinations prevented an estimated 14.4 million deaths (95% credible interval [Crl] 13.7–15.9) from COVID-19 in a year. However, if excess deaths were used, this estimate rose to 19.8 million (95% Crl 19.1–20.4) deaths prevented (Fig. 1), equating to a global reduction of 63% in total deaths (19.8 million of 31.4 million) during the first year of COVID-19 vaccination. Delivery of vaccines to low-income countries has been far lower than promised. In COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Advance Market Commitment countries, an estimated 7.4 million [95% Crl 6.8–7.7] of 17.9 million excess deaths were prevented, but millions more lives could have been saved with better coverage. COVID-19 vaccination altered the pandemic course, saving tens of millions of lives globally. However, vaccines had less effect in low-income countries due to inadequate access, emphasising the importance of global vaccine equity. References