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Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years.

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OBJECTIVE This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years. METHODS… Click to show full abstract

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years. METHODS OC data collected for 15 years old in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with respective 95%CI, were used to assess incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and their trends. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardised rate of incidence, mortality, and DALY of OC in China showed an upward trend with EAPCs of 2.33 (95% CI = 2.01 to 2.63), 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15 to 1.73) and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.52), respectively. The main risk factors for OC in China were smoking and alcohol consumption. New cases, deaths, and DALYs due to OC are predicted to increase more than 1.5 times over the next 20 years. CONCLUSION The number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to increase in the next 20 years. Therefore, the control of risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption, needs to be strengthened to reduce the burden of OC in China.

Keywords: 1990 2019; next years; china; disease burden; burden china

Journal Title: Oral diseases
Year Published: 2022

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