LAUSR

The African swine fever virus (ASFV) was first reported in China on August 3, 2018, which subsequently triggered a severe epidemic that spreads across the country. While the ASFV has numerous underlying transmission paths in China, this study primarily assessed the possibility of ASFV transmission though the legal animal husbandry trade. The reason for this is that, historically, this transmission path is one of the critical contacts for exotic diseases to access disease-free areas. This study employed a stochastic model to assess the monthly possibility for ASFV entering respective Chinese provinces. The results of this model suggest that the risk of ASFV transmission though the legal live-pig trade is highest in the southeastern regions of China. Vulnerable regions centered around Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces, especially throughout the months of January and December. Liaoning province contributes most to transmission risk with 46.7% of the overall annual risk. This study quantified the risk of ASFV spread in China related to the legal trade of pigs and provides detailed and new information for the development of ASFV monitoring and control plans in China and other countries who also face the challenge of ASFV.