LAUSR

We report propagation diversity of the tropical convective systems with a time scale of 4 to 8 weeks and examine its causes. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability and the cornerstone for subseasonal prediction of extreme weather events. Climate modeling and prediction of MJO remain a big challenge, partially due to lack of understanding the MJO diversity. Here, we delineate observed MJO diversity by cluster analysis of propagation patterns of MJO events, which reveals four archetypes: standing, jumping, slow eastward propagation, and fast eastward propagation. Each type exhibits distinctive east-west asymmetric circulation and thermodynamic structures. Tight coupling between the Kelvin wave response and major convection is unique for the propagating events, while the strength and length of Kelvin wave response distinguish slow and fast propagations. The Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies can affect MJO diversity by modifying the Kelvin wave response and its coupling to MJO convection. The results shed light on the mechanisms responsible for MJO diversity and provide potential precursors for foreseeing MJO propagation.