LAUSR

Antibiotic resistance propagation is a significant concern due to its projected impacts on both global health and the economy. However, global propagation mechanisms are not fully understood, including regional and temporal trends in the abundance of resistance plasmids that facilitate antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination. ABSTRACT Antibiotic resistance is propagating worldwide, but the predominant dissemination mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we report that antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) abundance in conjugative plasmids that are recorded in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) RefSeq plasmid database is increasing globally, which is likely a key factor in the propagation of resistance. ARG abundance in plasmids increased by 10-fold on a global scale from the year 2000 to the year 2020 (from 0.25 to 2.93 ARG copies/plasmid), with a more pronounced increase being observed in low-to-middle income countries. This increasing trend of plasmid-borne ARGs was corroborated by bootstrap resampling from each year of the NCBI RefSeq plasmid database. The results of a correlation analysis imply that if antibiotic consumption keeps growing at the current rates, a 2.7-fold global increase in the ARG abundance of clinically relevant plasmids may be reached by 2030. High sequence similarities of clinically relevant, conjugative plasmids that are isolated both from clinics and from the environment raise concerns about the environmental resistome serving as a potential ARG maintenance reservoir that facilitates transmission across these ecological boundaries. IMPORTANCE Antibiotic resistance propagation is a significant concern due to its projected impacts on both global health and the economy. However, global propagation mechanisms are not fully understood, including regional and temporal trends in the abundance of resistance plasmids that facilitate antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination. This unprecedented study reports that ARG abundance in the conjugative plasmids that are recorded in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database and harbor ARGs is increasing globally with antibiotic consumption, especially in low-to-medium income countries. Through network and comparative genomic analyses, we also found high sequence similarities of clinically relevant conjugative resistance plasmids that were isolated from clinical and environmental sources, suggesting transmission between these ecological boundaries. Therefore, this study informs the One Health perspective to develop effective strategies by which to curtail the propagation of plasmid-borne antibiotic resistance.