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Changes in Surface Temperature in the Arctic: Accuracy of Model Reproduction and Probabilistic Prediction for the Near Future

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The abilities of an ensemble of present-day global climate models are analyzed during modeling of evolution of the Arctic surface temperature over land including spatial consistency between the modeled and… Click to show full abstract

The abilities of an ensemble of present-day global climate models are analyzed during modeling of evolution of the Arctic surface temperature over land including spatial consistency between the modeled and observed data. These results are the basis for probabilistic regional prediction of variation in the surface air temperature for the near future (2021–2040).

Keywords: temperature; temperature arctic; near future; surface temperature; changes surface; prediction

Journal Title: Doklady Earth Sciences
Year Published: 2018

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