LAUSR

Introduction Financing healthcare for ageing populations has become an increasingly urgent policy concern. Primary healthcare (PHC) has been viewed as the cornerstone of health systems. While most research has examined the effects of PHC on population health, there is still a relative paucity of analysis on the effects of PHC on health expenditures, particularly, in low-income and middle-income countries. Knowledge on PHC’s potential role in mitigating the impact of ageing and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on health expenditure remains limited. Methods Using publicly accessible secondary data at country level, this paper examines the impact of ageing and the NCD burden on health expenditures. Regression with the interaction terms is used to explore whether greater expenditures on PHC can mitigate the growing fiscal pressure from ageing and the NCD burden. Results The empirical evidence shows that a higher share of PHC spending is correlated with lower per capita non-PHC spending, after controlling for population aged 60 and over and NCD burden, and gross domestic product per capita. However, the mitigating effects of PHC spending to reduce non-PHC expenditure caused by ageing and NCDs are not significant. Conclusions The findings suggest that more PHC spending can potentially lower total health expenditure. However, higher primary health spending cannot fulfil that potential without scrupulous attention to the way it is delivered. More spending on PHC, together with changes in PHC service delivery, highlighting its coordination and referring roles, will put nations on a pathway to achieving universal health coverage more sustainably.