LAUSR

On 28 July 2017, US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Chief Scott Gottlieb, MD, announced a bold new plan to limit the nicotine allowed in manufactured cigarettes.1 Gottlieb, a Trump appointee revealing C Everett Koop-like potential, pointed out that cigarettes remain the leading preventable cause of death in the USA, killing nearly half a million Americans every year.2 But of course it is the nicotine in cigarettes—kept above some crucial level and potency—that keeps people smoking and ultimately leads to disease, death and the suffering of families. Gottlieb did not specify a level below which nicotine would have to be lowered, but he did say it would have to render cigarettes ‘minimally or non-addictive’. Gottlieb’s announcement caused a panic on Wall Street, where cigarette stocks took a plunge not seen for decades. Altria’s market value was briefly down nearly 20%, and other cigarette makers suffered significant losses. Altogether $60 billion in market capitalisation was lost within an hour of the announcement—although part of that has been recovered in subsequent trading days. A panic of this sort should not be surprising, given what is at stake. Cigarette sales are still an astronomical 6 trillion sticks per year, with steady declines in richer parts of the globe being balanced by rises elsewhere. And cigarette making is still remarkably profitable. Even after last month’s losses, stock prices of the leading manufacturers remain near historic highs. Cigarette manufacturing in fact remains among the most lucrative business enterprises in all of human history. Credit Suisse recently reported that tobacco provided by far the leading return on investment across all industries. A dollar …