LAUSR

We develop an economically sophisticated management strategy evaluation for four sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) fishing districts in Bristol Bay, Alaska, to evaluate whether proposed increases in escapement goals — the number of fish allowed up each river to spawn — could improve fishery outcomes for the industry and the region. Higher escapements increase average runs toward biological maximum sustainable yield, but this is driven by infrequent years of very abundant runs. Our economic model shows processors do not add capacity in response to infrequent abundant runs. Therefore, interannual variance in district-specific catch increases because years with little or no fishing become more frequent to meet higher escapement in low-run years, but industry cannot capture greater value in the high-run years. In abundant runs, processors shift available labor to focus on high-volume, lower-margin products; in very abundant years, insufficient processing capacity allows additional fish to escape. Mobile driftnet vessels that can move to rivers experiencing high runs each year benefit, but district specialists in the small boat and set-net fleets are more vulnerable to years with little or no catch.