LAUSR

Starting from integral balance laws, a model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the evolution of Phosphorus cycle in a lake is proposed. After showing that the usual homogeneous model is not compatible with the mixture theory, we prove that an ODEs model still holds but for the mean values of the state variables provided that the nonhomogeneous involved fields satisfy suitable conditions. In this model the trophic state of a lake is described by the mean densities of Phosphorus in water and sediments, and phytoplankton biomass. All the quantities appearing in the model can be experimentally evaluated. To propose restoration programs, the evolution of these state variables toward stable steady state conditions is analyzed. Moreover, the local stability analysis is performed with respect to all the model parameters. Some numerical simulations and a real application to lake Varese conclude the paper.