LAUSR

The utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker in patients with advanced cancers receiving immunotherapy is uncertain. We therefore analyzed pretreatment (n=978) and on-treatment (n=171) ctDNA samples across 16 advanced stage tumor types from three phase I/II trials of durvalumab (± anti-CTLA-4 therapy tremelimumab). Higher pretreatment variant allele frequencies (VAF) were associated with poorer overall survival and other known prognostic factors, but not objective response, suggesting a prognostic role for patient outcomes. On-treatment reductions in VAF and lower on-treatment VAF were independently associated with longer PFS and OS, and increased ORR, but not prognostic variables, suggesting that on-treatment ctDNA dynamics are predictive of benefit from immune checkpoint blockade. Accordingly, we propose a concept of "molecular response" using ctDNA, incorporating both pretreatment and on-treatment VAF that predicted long-term survival similarly to initial radiological response, while also permitting early differentiation of responders among patients with initially radiologically stable disease.