LAUSR

Some authors have hypothesised that life expectancy at birth could reach 100 years in developed countries in the next decades. Using recent data for French women, it is shown that life expectancy changes from 1993 to 2016 are mainly linked to mortality rates of oldest women. In recent years, it happened that life expectancy of French women oscillated, because of for instance influenza epidemics killing mainly oldest frail people. It is hypothesised that in coming years, life expectancy of French women (and one day of men?) will only very slightly increase and will show oscillations because of increased mortality the years of severe influenza, heatwave and other events threatening the life of frail oldest people. This fate could also be that of the other developed countries in the future, which would mean that life expectancy has begun to plateau.