LAUSR

Background: Early neurological deterioration (END) is a feared complication of acute cerebral ischemia. However, estimates of END frequency vary widely, rates have not been systematically examined in hyperacute patients presenting within the first 2h of onset, nor separately in patients treated with and without thrombolysis, and risk factors for END have not been well delineated. Methods: We analyzed patients with a final diagnosis of acute cerebral ischemia in the NIH FAST-MAG Phase 3 multicenter clinical trial. END was defined as worsening post-admission by ≥ 4 NIHSS points up to Day 4. We separately analyzed patients who did and did not receive IV tPA. Results: Among 1245 acute cerebral ischemia patients transported by EMS to 55 stroke centers, time from last known well (LKW) to ED arrival was median 59 mins (IQR 80-46), and 36.1% received IV tPA. Overall, 211 (16.9%) experienced END by Day 4, with a greater proportion of END in tPA than non-tPA patients (21.2% vs 14.5%, p=0.003). In multivariate analysis, from 26 candidate variables, among tPA recipients, independent predictors of END were: age (OR 1.03/year, 95%CI 1.01-1.05), diastolic BP (OR 1.01/mm Hg, 95%CI 1.00-1.03), prior stroke (OR 1.65, 95%CI 0.98-2.77), glucose (OR 11.06/10 fold increase, 95%CI 1.90-64.44), and worse ASPECTS score (OR 0.85/point, 95%CI 0.78-0.92). Among non-tPA recipients, independent predictors of END were: more severe NIHSS (OR 1.08/point, 95%CI 1.05-1.11), glucose (OR 8.88/10 fold increase, 95%CI 1.83-43.12), and h/o hypertension (OR 2.62/mm Hg, 95%CI 1.25-5.48), with Akaike information criteria identifying SBP, shorter LKW-to-ED time, and absence of anticoagulant agents as additional contributors. C statistics for these models were 0.68 for tPA patients and 0.73 for non-tPA patients. Conclusions: Among hyperacute cerebral ischemia patients, END occurs in 1 in 5 who receive tPA, and 1 in 7 who do not receive tPA. Greater initial stroke severity (on neurologic exam or imaging), higher glucose, and hypertension increase risk of END for both lytic and non-lytic patients, with older age and prior stroke additionally increasing END risk with tPA. Models based on these risk factors show fair to good performance identifying patients who will experience END after hospital admission.