LAUSR

Background and Purpose— To further improve preventive strategies against stroke, there is a need for epidemiological long-term studies. The study aimed at a prospective investigation of stroke determinants in the general male population. Methods— During a period of 48 years, from 50 to 98 years of age, a population-based sample of 854 men was followed using repeated medical examinations, lifestyle questionnaires, data from hospital records and the National Cause of Death Register. Results— Determinants of ischemic stroke were atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR], 6.61; 95% CI, 4.47–9.77); mother dead from cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.53; 1.09–2.17); high education (HR, 0.81; 0.69–0.96); and high physical activity level during leisure time (HR, 0.68; 0.50–0.93). For hemorrhagic stroke heart rate (HR, 1.04; 1.01–1.06) and mother dead from stroke (HR, 3.56; 1.43–8.87) constituted an increased risk. Statistically significant determinants for all stroke were atrial fibrillation (HR, 5.34; 3.68–7.75); high diastolic blood pressure (HR, 1.02; 1.01–1.03); high body weight (HR, 0.96; 0.94–0.99); high educational level (HR, 0.79; 0.68–0.92); wide waist circumference (HR, 1.04; 1.01–1.07); smoking (HR, 1.25; 1.06–1.48); mother dead from cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.43; 1.05–1.94); and diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.65; 1.02–2.68). Of all men diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, 88% had a stroke during follow-up. Conclusions— Atrial fibrillation was by far the strongest determinant of stroke during 48 years of follow-up in a male population sample followed until the age of 98 years. The results warrant improved prophylaxis through intense treatment of modifiable determinants.