LAUSR

AbstractCentral southwest Asia (CSWA: 20˚-47˚N and 40˚-85˚E) is a water-stressed region prone to significant variations in precipitation during its winter precipitation season of November-April. Wintertime precipitation is crucial for regional water resources, agriculture, and livelihood; however, in recent years droughts have been a notable feature of CSWA’s interannual variability. Here, the predictability of CSWA wintertime precipitation is explored based on its time-lagged relationship with the preceding months’ (September-October) sea surface temperature (SST), using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) approach.For both periods, results indicate that for CSWA much of the seasonal predictability arises from SST variations in the Pacific related to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Additional sources of skill that play a weaker predictive role include long-term SST trends, North Atlantic variability and regional teleconnections. CCA cross-validation skill...