LAUSR

Decadal thermohaline anomalies carried northwards by the North Atlantic Current are an important source of predictability in the North Atlantic region. Here, we investigate whether these thermohaline anomalies influence surface-forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) in the eastern Subpolar gyre using the reanalyses EN4.2.2 for the ocean and ERA5 for the atmosphere. In addition, we follow the propagation of thermohaline anomalies along two paths: in the Subpolar North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea. We use observation-based data sets (HadISST, EN4.2.2, and Ishii) between 1947 and 2021 and apply Complex Empirical Orthogonal functions. Our results show that when a warm anomaly enters the eastern Subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in light-density classes (27.0-27.2 kg m−3). In contrast, when a cold anomaly enters the eastern Subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in denser classes (27.4-27.5 kg m−3). Following the thermohaline anomalies in both paths, we find alternating warm-salty and cold-fresh subsurface anomalies, repeating throughout the 74-year-long record with 4 warm-salt and cold-fresh periods after the 50s. The cold-fresh anomaly periods happen simultaneously with the Great salinity anomaly events. Moreover, the propagation of thermohaline anomalies is faster in the SPNA than in the Norwegian Sea, especially for temperature anomalies. These findings might have implications for our understanding of the decadal variability of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and predictability in the North Atlantic region.