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Development of a Model Performance Metric and Its Application to Assess Summer Precipitation over the U.S. Great Plains in Downscaled Climate Simulations

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AbstractSeveral dynamically downscaled climate simulations with various spatial resolutions (24, 12, and 4 km) and spectral nudging strengths (0, 600, and 2000 km) have been run over the contiguous United… Click to show full abstract

AbstractSeveral dynamically downscaled climate simulations with various spatial resolutions (24, 12, and 4 km) and spectral nudging strengths (0, 600, and 2000 km) have been run over the contiguous United States from 2000 to 2009 using the high-resolution NASA Unified Weather and Research Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional model initialized and constrained by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). This paper summarizes the authors’ efforts on the development of a model performance metric and its application to assess summer precipitation over the U.S. Great Plains (USGP) in these downscaled climate simulations. A new model performance metric T was first developed that uses both the linear correlation coefficient and mean square error and is consistent with other commonly used metrics, but gives a bigger separation between good and bad simulations. This metric T was then applied to the summer mean precipitation spatial pattern, diurnal Hovmoller diagram, and di...

Keywords: performance metric; downscaled climate; model performance; model; climate simulations

Journal Title: Journal of Hydrometeorology
Year Published: 2017

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