LAUSR

AbstractIn this study a 1-yr dataset of a convective-scale atmospheric prediction system of the European Arctic (AROME-Arctic) is compared with the ECMWF’s medium-range forecasting, ensemble forecasting, and reanalysis systems, by using surface and radiosonde observations of wind and temperature. The focus is on the characteristics of the model systems in the very short-term forecast range (6–15 h), but without a specific focus on lead-time dependencies. In general, AROME-Arctic adds value to the representation of the surface characteristics. The atmospheric boundary layer thickness, during stable conditions, is overestimated in the global models, presumably because of a too diffusive turbulence scheme. Instead, AROME-Arctic shows a realistic mean thickness compared to the radiosonde observations. All models behave similarly for the upper-air verification and surprisingly, as well, in forecasting the location of a polar low in the short-range forecasts. However, when comparing with the largest wind speeds...