LAUSR

AbstractWhat is the benefit of a near-convection-resolving ensemble over a near-convection-resolving deterministic forecast? In this paper, a way in which ensemble and deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems can be compared is demonstrated using a probabilistic verification framework. Three years’ worth of raw forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (UM) 12-member 2.2-km Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-UK) ensemble and 1.5-km Met Office U.K. variable resolution (UKV) deterministic configuration were compared, utilizing a range of forecast neighborhood sizes centered on surface synoptic observing site locations. Six surface variables were evaluated: temperature, 10-m wind speed, visibility, cloud-base height, total cloud amount, and hourly precipitation. Deterministic forecasts benefit more from the application of neighborhoods, though ensemble forecast skill can also be improved. This confirms that while neighborhoods can enhance skill by sampling mo...