LAUSR

AbstractNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from four ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are verified using the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) best tracks for the 2008–15 seasons. The 1–5-day forecasts are evaluated for the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the 23-member UKMO ensemble (UKMET), and the 51-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, as well as a combination of these ensembles [Multimodel Global (MMG)]. Several deterministic models are also evaluated, such as the Global Forecast System (GFSdet), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF), the deterministic ECMWF model (ECdet), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamical Laboratory model (GFDL).The ECdet track errors are the smallest on average at all lead times, but are not significantly different from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means. All models have a slow bias (90–240 km) in the along-track direction by 120 h, while the...