LAUSR

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally associated with rapid changes in TC wind intensity and broadening of the TC wind-field, both of which can create unique forecasting challenges. As part of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Project, a new model was developed to provide operational probabilistic guidance on ERC onset. The model is based on the time evolution of TC wind-intensity and passive satellite microwave imagery, and is named “M-PERC” for Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The model was initially developed in the Atlantic basin, but is found to be globally applicable and skillful. The development of M-PERC and its performance characteristics are described here, as well as a new intensity prediction model that extends previous work. Application of these models is expected to contribute to a reduction of TC intensity forecast error.